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============================================= This year the Welsh National looks to be particularly difficult affair with many horses in with a chance and only one horse running from out of the handicap. There is plenty to think about with last seasons Aintree national winner heading the field and two previous Welsh national winners in the field. Well here is my thoughts on this years runners and riders.: Mon Mome 9 11-12: V.Williams A.TreadwellOne of my favorite horses running currently. Started favorite for this race last year but ran badly. Went on to win the Aintree National at absolutely ridiculous odds of 100/1. However he looks like he has it all to do today off top weight. He is in good form and this has been set as his early season target. I would not put anyone off this horse and he could just do it. He looks to have a big task at this weight, but he will act on the ground. Halcon Genelardais: 9 11-9 : A. King W. HutchingsonPreviously a winner, a second and a third in this race. Loves this track, will not mind the soft ground and stays this trip well. This horse could not be left out of anyone's short list today. A good 4th to Kauto Star in the Betfair chase at Haydock puts him rightl into contention here today. The only worry is that he carries a big weight but he has carried big weights before. A very good chance today. Good chance as any, with much in his favor. The Tother One: 8 11-4: P. Nichols A.P.McCoyComes from the best stable in the country and has the significant booking of Tony McCoy in the saddle. May well start favorite for this race and looks to have a good chance. Biggest worry with this horse is that he tends to make jumping mistakes and that may cause his to loose ground on this stamina sapping 3m 7f race in heavy ground. Sure to be well supported and would not be a surprise winner. Good chance from a big stable. Nozaic: 8 11-4 P. Nichols. H. SkeltonPaul Nicholls second string but has good soft ground form and does well this time of year. This horse is another who has a tendency to make the odd mistake which could cost him dear today. This said could not be discounted as a few years ago he could seem to do no wrong. If back to best could go well. Could be the stables surprise runner. Gone to Lunch: 9 11-1 J.Scott S.E.DurackComes here after a really good 5th in the Hennessy behind Denman back in November and is obviously a horse will a little class. A winner of 7 of his 21 starts and a second in the Scottish National therefore the distance will be no problem but I am not sure if he will like the bottomless ground today. Good stamina but the ground may be his undoing. Miko De Beauchene 9 11-1 Miss V. Williams A ColemanWinner of this race two years ago but unseated at the second last year. Now with the new stable of V. Williams who is in cracking form at the moment. This horse has lost his way and if he was to find his old form at this weight he would certainly be there with a shout but there is too much doubt about this horse at the moment. Poor recent form is a worry. Kornati Kid: 7 10-11 P.Hobbs R.JohnsonA young horse with reasonable form who ran a cracking race in the Hennessy in November coming 6th behind the winner Denman and just behind another of today's rivals Gone to Lunch. Stable obviously sees something in the horse but he must improve win this todayUnexposed but should have improvement to come. Ballyfitz: 9 10-10 N.T. Davies P.J.BrennanComes here after a 4th in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham where he ran really well, but subsequently made mistakes and was pulled up in the Hennessy. Came back with a really good pipe opener of a hurdle race at Sandown on the 5th of this month. Another who could be well treated and the slower pace of this race could suit the horse. The 33-1 starting price looks generous for this horse. . Le Beau Bai: 6 10-9 R. Lee Mr. O. Greenall
Hello Bud: 11-10-8Winner of last seasons Scottish National and a winner of the Southern National. A front runner (They do well here) and from a stable that has won the race before and who is in form. The rider is the trainers son and takes a valuable 7lbs off. Should be fully exposed but looks a really tempting prospect off a low weight at a big price ?? Good Each way bet perhaps? . Dream Alliance: 8 10-8 P.J.Hobbs T.J.OBrian.This horses 2nd in the 2007 Hennessy shows that he has something about him but form seemed to desert him. 2nd in a handicap hurdle at this track is his only run so far this year. Old form would give him a chance but there are others with more appeal today. Iris Be Blame: 19 10-7 : S.Curran A.Freeman2008 Scottish National winner on good ground , but he will act on the ground and although he has run well on soft/heavy looks better when the ground is not bottomless. He is a consistent sort and therefore the handicapper keeps him from winning too often (Winner of 2 from 35 starts). A good horse but well exposed and has a lot to do here. . Cornish Sett: 10 10-7 P.Nicholls N.ScofieldA good long distance chaser this. Second last year was an improvement on his 8th the year before. 17th in last seasons Aintree National and was 12th the year before. Can act of soft but is better on good ground. Well exposed but deserves anther crack at the race. Will his big price look shocking after the race? Flintoff 8 10-6 Tim Vaughan. Tom ScudamoreOwned by England's cricketer Andrew (Freddie) Flintoff a horse that has been tried without disgrace in many “nationals”. PU in the 2008 Midlands National, 6th in the 2008 Irish National, 3rd in the 2008 Scottish National and 2nd in last seasons Midlands National. A horse knocking on the door of a big win and races off a good weight today. He will like the ground and likes long distances although he has only wone once at 3m. Ridden by a most underrated jockey in Tom Scudamore who I would love to see win this this race as his father Peter won the two best remembered Welsh Nationals in 88 and 89 back to back on Bonanza boy Reasonable chance to make the frame. Operation Houdini: 7 10-5 D.E.Fitzgerald S.W.FlaniganIrish horse who comes here with a good chance after last years first ever Irish winner of the race. Well exposed but acts on the ground and distance but is difficult to assess fully because like so many other irish raiders he runs in a lot of hurdle races. Not without a chance and a big movement in the betting should not be ignored. Coe: Mrs S.J.Smith R.McGrathA good consistent type that has won over 3m 4f and who likes heavy ground. 9th in last seasons Scottish National. Runs well at this time of year and comes here in form after two good second places at Haydock and Newcastle. Killbeggan Blade: T.R.George Sam ThomasPulled up in both Scottish and Aintree Nationals masks the fact that this horse is a really good long distance chaser who has never won a race shorter than 3 miles. A winner of 7 chases up to 3m6f and what this horses needs is a slow pace in the race. I think he may get it in this race and at huge odds looks as if he could be the each way steal of the race. looks a good prospect at big odds. Silver by Nature: Miss L.Russell P.BuchananA young horse who has not done much wrong in races below this level. He is on the upgrade and has shown his well being with a really good win at Chrlisle at the start of last month over 3m2f in the soft. Could be anything and could be open to much improvement. One not without a chance to watch with interest today. Old Benny: A.King Charlie HuxleyA young horse who was 4th in a Scottish National. He comes here on the back of a great win in the national hunt amateur rider event over 3m7f at last seasons Festival. Ridden again by the same amateur he gets the trip well but has not run up to that form on his two runs this season, should like the course so who knows? Zacharova 6 10-0 Miss V.Williams Mr.Harry Challoner
Win : Le Beau Bai Best each way prospects Halcon Genelardais, Hello Bud, Killbeggan Blade. |
