A A A The Coral Welsh National at Chepstow Racecourse

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My Will: 6 11-12: P F Nicholls: Paddy Merrigan

A 6 year old bay gelding, my will have plenty to do off top weight, indeed you have to go back to 1994 to find a horse that has won off a weight greater than 11st. That said he is a good horse with plenty of stamina, class and recent form as his good win at Cheltenham last month where he took the Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Chase, a grade 3 handicap chase over 3m 3f + and giving weight to the next 4 behind him.
A good horse with what could prove too much weight even given that his jockey will take off three pounds.

Innox: 10 11-7b: F Doumen Barry Keniry

From the powerful French stable of Mr. Doumen a good bay gelding who has been racing in first class company for some time over long distances. He fell in last seasons Grand National but finished a creditable 7th in the 2005 race so obviously this distance will be no problem for him. He is not a proficient winner with only 5 wins from his 45 starts but that is because of his running well in good races and therefore the handicapper has got his mark.
He looks to have a big task at this weight, but he will act on the ground.

One Knight: 10 11-5b1: P J Hobbs: T J O´Brien

A highly thought of individual this horse oozes class when he right but has been out of sorts now for a while. He comes here on the back of a good pipe opening hurdle race, where he got round and looked as if he enjoyed it. He has not got many miles on the clock due to his injury problems. He fell in this race last year when second and although he probably would not have one he would have been placed. He likes this course and will be spot on for the race. If he gets around I think he will make the frame and could well win despite his big weight. He is available at 20/1 which I think is a ridiculous price for a horse of his class.
If the first time blinkers have the desired effect he could just be the one!

Juveigneur: 9 11-3: N J Henderson: Mick Fitzgerald

This 9 year old Chestnut gelding may not have a very good win to run ratio but he is very consistent. He has made the frame in 17 of his 29 runs. He comes here in good form on the back of two good runs last month, one being a fine second in the Hennessey. He has one of the best jockey's in the country riding here with Mick Fitzgerald.
The distance should not be a problem and he should handle the ground. He has a little too much weight for me but would not be an undeserving winner.

Halcon Genelardais: 6 11-3: A King: Wayne Hutchinson

Halcon Genelardais has great form and looks a worthy favorite. Put up a good run of 3 wins at the back end of last season before a good run in the Scottish National where he finished 5th and looked as if perhaps he did not quite get home over the 4m1f. However he should get this trip well enough today and he comes here in good form with a win at Haydock on his seasonal reappearance last month.
A young horse on the upgrade and looks right for this race. He is another who will have to break the 11st barrier that this race has in recent years and that could be difficult if the ground turns out very soft as it often does but very good horses can win with this sort of weight.

All In The Stars: 8 10-11: D P Keane: Neil Mulholland

A fine chaser this 8 year old Chestnut gelding. He has some good for and his best probably his win n the Country Gentlemen's Association Chase Country Gentlemen's Association Chase at Wincanton last season over 3m 1f.
He seems plenty high enough in the weights here but the distance should not prove a problem. A lot may depend on if he takes to this undulating course.

Run For Paddy: 10 10-: Carl Llewellyn: Noel Fehily

Last years Scottish National winner for this 'new' trainer Run for Paddy looks to have most the credentials for the winner of this race. He can stay the distance he handles the going and has a trainer who knows what it takes to win the race. He ahs the benefit of a recent run and indeed the only thing against him might be that he is untried at this quirky course which horses seem to either like or hate. 25/1 available now seems like he Is another who is too highly priced, but will he win? Well you can't leave him out of your deliberations.

Kinburn: 7 10-7-: J Howard Johnson: Tony Dobbin

Three wins and two places from 5 chase starts seems to say it all for this horses chance in this race but it does not tell the whole story. This horse despite his really good form does make hard work of his races by making jumping errors in his races. Chepstow takes some jumping and has too hard open ditches and a tricky downhill fence. If the horse does get it together then he is a serious contender. The booking of a top jockey in Tony Dobbin could well be of significance also.
Another interesting contender.

L´Aventure: 7 10-6tb -: P F Nicholls: Liam Heard (3)

Last years winner is back to try and win back to back wins a feat not done since Bonanza Boy back in 1988/89.
She ran with credit last season after her great win here. She obviously has this race as her main early season target and had a good prep in a hurdle here back in October. She loves the course will stay and likes soft ground. She will be staying on when others are finished. The pace of the race will be critical for her and if the ground is very soft and this forces a good test of stamina and not a test of pace she will have a great chance of a repeat win with just 2lbs more to carry.
Looks to have every thing in her favour again this year.

Mon Mome: 6 10-6 -: Venetia Williams: Liam Treadwell (3)

A young long distance chaser on the upgrade this bay gelding could well be the dark horse of the race. Unseated his rider in last seasons Scottish National was unfortunate as in the main he jumps very well. He is a very versatile horse as his win over 2m4f last season at Aintree proves and as that was an amateur race he seems to be a good ride also.
Difficult to assess fully as his race form is so varied but as stated could well be one of the dark horses running here.

Heros Collonges: 6 10-6 -: Mrs. N Macauley: Tom Messenger (5)

A fine second last year carrying 5lbs more, Heros Collonges could well run well again this year. He did lose some form last year and fell in the National back in April. He has only had one run this season and it was a little disappointing when he was pulled up but it was the first run of the year. He has since changed stable from the most powerful yard in the country of Paul Nicholls but despite this a change of yard sometimes freshens a horse up. Despite his poor recent run, his liking for the course and the distance I can't understand how 66/1 is available for the horse.
At 11 he will not have any improvement but could well be a big price placed horse.

Preacher Boy: 7 10-3-: R J Hodges: Daryl Jacob (3))

Six places including two wins in his 7 runs, shows that this is a chaser with fine consistency. Especially when you realize that this includes a third in the Hennessey and a second in the Badger Ales at Wincanton. He is still improving and could be anything. One worry might be that his connection have stated that he will not run if it is to soft at Chepstow and with rain forecast it will be soft
If they let him take his chance will the ground cause problems?

Lou Du Moulin Mas: 7 10-2t -: P F Nicholls: R Walsh

A fine horse and he looks to be the most favored of the Paul Nichols string here with the country's top jockey Ruby Walsh making this horse his pick. He has had plenty of races for a 7 year old but this season he has been a revelation after he had a wind operation. His last three runs have seen a second place sandwiched between two wins the last in fine style in the Lane Fox Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase at Newbury which will have put him spot on for this race.
Impossible to know just how good he is and how much more improvement will come but is one that can't be left out of ant reckoning.

Naunton Brook (ex5): 7 10-1t -: N A Twiston-Davies: Mr. D England (5)

This horse comes here in fine form with two good wins with the amateur jockey that is on board again today. One of those races was a 4 mile race soothe distance today will not be a problem. He has run well without winning at this track and is at the right end of the handicap for this race. If the two last runs have not taken too much out of the horse he could be another of the dark horses.
His stable has won this race along with many other fine long distances chases.

Lordofourown: 8 10-0p: S Donohoe: Paul Moloney

An Irish raider who is well thought of at home. He will be running in the top long distance races this year. He has only once been tried out of Ireland and that was at Aintree last season, where he fell in the Mildmay.
Could be anything and the betting market could be the best guide to his chance. He is coming a long way for this race.

Mount Clerigo: 8 10-0: V R A Dartnall: James White (5)

A nice young horse that should be still improving. Only one outing this season when he fell in the totesport.com Handicap Chase at Wetherby. He is difficult to access fully as his chasing form is a little in and out. He has not been tried at this distance before but has been running around 3 miles without problems.
He could be anything.

Korelo: 8 10-0: D E Pipe: Tom Scudamore

Running from just out of the handicap this bay gelding comes from the powerful yard of David Pipe. An 8 year old with 39 runs under his belt he is fully exposed and looks to have a lot to do here today. However ho does have one or two things in his favor here. He is a winner over this course and that is a big help for any horse running here. His stable (Although then run by David's father Martin) has a good record in this race. He will get the distance and most of all what could be in his favor is the ground. He loves a slog in the mud and if the forecasted rain comes he could be going well at the end when others have given up.
Not without a chance by any means.

Simon: 7 10-0: J L Spearing: Andrew Thornton

Well fancied and sure to give a good account Simon looks one of the most progressive sorts running today. He is improving with every race and is bred to stay. His latest outing was a 3m 5f chase at Sandown where he was second to Tana River.
He is only 4lbs out of the handicap and looks to be spot on for this race.

Omni Cosmo: 10 10-0: Mrs. S J Smith: S E Durack

This horse has staying chaser written all over him. He has had some leg trouble in the past but his trainer has now put this right. The horse seems to be jumping with confidence again. He will have to show improvement again here which is hard for a 10 year old but he is another who will be there at the finish if the race turns out to be a grueling as it has been in past seasons so therefore not without a chance even from out of the handicap.

Twelve Paces: 5 10-0: D E Pipe: Timmy Murphy

A progressive horse this and at 5 is improving and has gone up over 20 lbs in the handicap since going chasing. He is from a stable which does well with young horses and his stable jockey presumably has picked this horse to ride. % year olds do not have a great record in the race and it is almost 100 years since the last 5 year old winner, that said not too many try this marathon trip. Last years winner L´Aventure tried the race as a 5 year old and got into the frame so who knows maybe this horse will do the same or even go one better.
Not much form to mark his card with but his win over strong resolve in the Cumbria Local Enterprise Agency Network Handicap Chase in October caught the eye. He is 6 lbs out of the handicap.

So that's the summary what about the conclusions well here are mine: -
This looks to be a first class contest here and I think that it perhaps is the hardest race that we have seen for some time. Halcon Genelardais is favorite at the moment and perhaps going on form it is difficult to argue with that however Chepstow can be a funny course and at this time of year the ground is always very soft. I know that we have not had the rain we have had in past years but rain is still forecast for the day and I would guess that it will be a severe test as it usually is. This I believe has led to the fact that no horse carrying 11 st or more has won the race for some time because of the stamina sapping effect of the weight. I am not saying that it can't be done but it would take a very good horse to do it and I think that Halcon Genelardais will suffer the effects of the weight. He has also not been tried at this course before and that is a worry.
Now that I have said that the first horse I think is worth a second look in one carrying more weight and that is One Knight.
This horse runs well at Chepstow and was going well last year when he fell at the last. He is carrying 3 lbs less this year and he is such a good horse that I will forget my weight rules and give him another chance.

Last Years Winner L´Aventure has everything going for her again this year. She is a year older and stronger. She loves this course and loves long distances. She will act on the ground and comes from a great stable. She surly will make the frame and who knows could well do back to back wins.

My next selection seems to tick most of the boxes, Mon Mome. He is on the upgrade and has done nothing wrong. He has won over this distance all be it in a poor race. I think this could just be right for the horse and he will be carrying a good racing weight. I would be happier if he had had at least one run here, and I am surprised that he hasn't as his trainer come to this course often. But I am prepared to overlook this.

My final selection is Naunton Brook. Another young horse on the upgrade, a winner over 4 miles. He likes soft ground. Looks to be better that his handicap mark and he runs well with this amateur jockey on board.

So that's my 4 against the filed and with prices available at 20/1, 9/1, 20/1 and 20/1 It looks as there is value to be found in the race.

Good luck to you all and I hope you find the winner.

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