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Take the Stand. 8 -11-12 P Bowen
This 8-year-old bay gelding seems to have been around for longer than his age states.
Long distances seem to bring out the best in this horse as he showed when he won the English summer national at Uttoxeter in June this year over a distance of 4 miles and half a furlong. He was carrying 11st 10lbs and was top weight that day also. The ground that day was good to firm and he is undoubtedly better on good ground with 7 of his 8 wins coming on ground good or firmer and only one on good to soft.
That said he did run with great credit when finishing fourth in bottomless ground here last year.
Take a stand can make the odd mistake in his jumping as was seen on his last outing in the Tommy Whittle chase when he made a mistake and also slipped before being pulled up.
Take a stand looks to have a bit to do to win this off top weight but is not out of it be any stretch and would not be in any way a surprise winner but the ground will certainly be soft or heavy on the 28th and that could just be what tips the balance against him.
Has won up to 4miles+ and on ground ranging from good/firm to good. Shotgun Willy 10-11-11 P F Nicholls J Tizzard
Only 18 races under his belt this 10-year-old chestnut gelding. He is consistent and top class and has only finished 3 times out of the frame in his life. He has not been out for nearly two years and his last two runs were in long distance races when he was pulled up in the 2003 Grand National and was then 5th in the Scottish equivilent a few weeks later. His connections feel that he needs long distances and they will have him as fit as they can for this race but his long absence must be a worry.
Has won up to 3miles 4 furlongs and has won on going ranging from good to heavy. Celestial Gold 6-11-9 M C Pipe ***NON RUNNER*****
The youngster in the pack this brown gelding at 6 years old and despite good form this race has never gone to a horse this young before in the modern era. (Last 6-year-old winner 1932). However his trainer Martin Pipe id the maestro in young horses and has won this race 5 times so he knows what's needed.
Only 7 runs under his belt but he has won 4 of them and was in the frame on the other two. He is on the up and could amount to anything but he can go with the big guns and win as his Hennessy win in November showed where he had good horses behind that day.
Looks a live chance but his age would give me cause for concern.
Has won up to 3milses 3 furlongs and on ground ranging from good/firm to good/soft. Jurancon II 7-11-9 M C Pipe
A distant fifth in this race last year came on the back of a win in the summer national earlier in the year. Last years race conditions are likely to be repeated this year and that may give the horse a better chance, however he does now have to carry 22lbs more weight and give 3lbs to last years winner Bindaree. But you must say that he has improved in the last 12 months. If this horse is chosen by Martin Pipe's top jockey Timmy Murphy then this will also be in his favor.
I could see the horse running well and has a chance but looks a tough call for him to win this first time out.
Has won up to a distance of 4miles+ and on going from Good/Firm to Heavy One Knight 8-11-9 P J Hobbs *** NON RUNNER ***
A really great win in the rehearsal chase earlier in the month, this 8year old chestnut gelding has a real live chance. He has many things going for him, in that he loves Chepstow and has not been beaten in the 4 runs at the course. This horse has had leg problems and his connections may be concerned that this race may come too soon after the Rehearsal, however if he is in the race you will need to take his well being for granted as his connections would not run him unless that thought he was fine.
He has lots going for him if he gets this untried distance and there is no real reason to think that he may not. A super horse who may be up to top class and could be good enough to win the Gold Cup which he is in at the moment.
Looks like the one they will all have to beat.
One Knight has won up to 3m3f and on going ranging from good to heavy. Stormez 7-11-8 M C Pipe ****NON RUNNER ***
Another of Martin Pipe youngsters this 7 year old bay gelding. He is another who ran in this race last year and was going well if a little one paced at the end. He finished in the frame and was 3rd a distance behind the winner.
Stormez Despite being only 7 has run 33 times starting his career in France before joining Martin Pipe. 12 Times a winner he has some good wins under his belt, including two valuable class "A" races at Cheltenham.
He is well exposed and his handicap mark reflects his ability. Stormez is another in the race that has won the summer national over 4miles+ so the distance should be no problem.
Stormez has won up to a distance of 4m+ and on going ranging from good/firm to heavy. Bindaree 10-11-6 N A Twiston-Davies C Llewellyn
Last year Bindaree came through to add The Welsh National to his Aintree Grand National title that he won in 2003. He has gone up 11lbs since last year however that would not necessarily put me off the horse as he can carry the weight.
He is not a prolific winner but he has a lot going for him. He loves Chepstow and also likes to run left handed. He loves long distance chases and stays all day. The one thing that can catch this horse out is he can get left behind in a fast run race. This should not be a problem in this race, as the slow going will allow for a sedate pace early on in the race.
At only 10 years old this chestnut gelding is still in the main four year age window that has proves so popular with 69 winners coming in ages 7 to 10 inclusive.
I would prefer to have seen a run under his belt but he still has a good chance of finishing in the frame and it would not be a great surprise to see him being the next dual winner since Bonanza Boy back in 88/89.
Bindaree has won up to a distance of 4m4f and on going ranging from good to heavy. Chives (ex4) 9-11-4 Mrs. S J Smith D Elsworth
Chives is a top class chaser who perhaps has promised more that he has actually achieved. He comes here on the back of a very fine win at Haydock in the Tommy Whittle chase. I have to say that that was his first win since February 2002. Chives has suffered some problems with breaking blood vessels in the past and was pulled up in the 2003 Grand National. He was also pulled up in this race last year. However he ran really well in the race to finish 2nd to Mini Sensation the year before.
Chives has real class and may just be coming back in to form. If he runs up to the form he showed in the Tommy Whittle he will have a real live chance.
Chives has won up to a distance of 3m2f and going ranging from good/soft to soft. Frenchman´s Creek 10-10-11 H Morrison ****NON-RUNNER****
This 10-year-old bay gelding has won 4 of his 20 starts including the valuable William Hill National Hunt Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham festival.
He can run a bit in and out and despite his connections thinking he prefers good ground he has won on soft. If they are correct then the going at Chepstow at this time of year will certainly be against him.
Frenchman´s Creek has not run here before and may not like the track although having handled Cheltenham's undulations he should find handling this track within his ability.
Frenchman´s Creek has won up to a distance of 3m1f and on going ranging from good to good/soft. Be My Royal 10 -10-9 T R George J M Maguire
This bay gelding passed the post first in the 2002 Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup but subsequently lost the race when he failed a sample test when a banned substance was found. In that race he sustained a career threatening injury so it was great to see him make a comeback at this course in November. On that day he ran a very good 3rd to Victory Gunner and his connections must have had this race in mind to give him his comeback race here.
The horse has a touch of class but can make jumping mistakes but with a clear round could well have a good chance.
Be My Royal has won up to a distance of 3m4f and on going ranging from yielding to heavy. Colnel Rayburn 8-10-8 Paul Nolan ****NON RUNNER ****
This 8-year-old bay gelding is the best of the Irish raiders in this race. The main thing about this chaser is the ground the softer the better for this horse and he will get what he needs here.
His run comes off a win at Naas last month where he won the grade 3 Woodlands Park. He obviously has talent but as all his running has been done in Ireland perhaps the betting market will be the best guide to his chances here.
Colnel Rayburn has won up to a distance of 3miles and on going ranging from good/soft to heavy. Akarus 9 -10-6 M C Pipe
Two from home in last years race this bay gelding was looking like the winner and going better than anything when he fell. In two subsequent runs he was pulled up at Warwick and fell in The Grand National. He has not been seen since, Akarus is a dark horse and not a prolific winner (2 from 17 runs) however he has lots of talent and looks the type for this race. He was so impressive last year that despite his perhaps not so hot form; he is at the head of the betting this year.
If he runs up to last years form and stays on his feet he could go and win this and that would he no surprise at all. One not to leave out of any reckoning.
Has won up to three miles and on going ranging from sfot to heavy Supreme Glory 11 10-5 P G Murphy L Aspell
An 11-year-old bay gelding who has good long distance chase form. A winner of this event in 2001 he was also the runner up in The Grand National 2002. He has had some problems in the past and for an 11 year old he has not got too many miles on the clock. With 4 wins from 22 starts he is not a prolific winner but can pull out a really good run when conditions suit. He usually runs well when fresh so his first time out 12th and last would put you off, but that was his first run for over 600 days. Looking at the bare form it is difficult to see him coming back to enough form to win this now.
Supreme Glory has won up to a distance of 4m1f and on going ranging from Good/Soft to Heavy. Silver Birch 7 10-5 P F Nicholls R Walsh
This 7-year-old bay gelding come from one of the very best racing teams in the country. He has one of the best jockeys racing in the country today and therefore has a lot going for him before we even look at the form, and actually the form is very good for a 7 year old. His finest hour was at Aintree in November when he won the Becher Handicap Chase. He like soft ground so this will be a help to him and the way he jumped at Aintree suggests the fences should be no problem. Add to this the fact that he has won a chase at the course puts this horse right up there in the top contenders.
As I write this One Knight has been withdrawn from the race so this gives him an even better chance in my opinion. Also in his favor is the fact that in the Becher he was in the lead for a long time and Chepstow is very forgiving to front-runners.
Silver Birch has won up to a distance of 3m3f and going ranging from Soft to Heavy. Strong Resolve 8 10-4 Miss Lucinda V Russell P Buchanan (5)
This grey gelding is going up in the handicap all the time as a result of some good runs. A well exposed 8 year old he has run up to his handicap mark and is a consistent horse if only in races below this class. That said he did show some class in the Gala Casinos Daily Record Novices' Handicap Chase at Ayr last April when second to Rosie Redman. Something of an Ayr specialist so not sure if he will like this course. He looks as if he is running into a bit of form and he could do well here but as he has never run at Chepstow is a bit of an unknown.
Strong Resolve has won up to a distance of 3m1f and going ranging from god to soft. L´Aventure 5 10-4tb P F Nicholls P J Brennan
Another from the powerful Paul Nicholls stable this 5-year-old Bay Mare. Her age is the biggest problem as far as history is concerned here, 1908 was the year the last 5 year old won the race that is a hell of a thing to overcome also it was back in 1964 when Rainbow Battle won and she was the last mare to win the race. However lets ignore that and look at the form. 6 Wins from 17 runs and a win at Chepstow thrown in. Also with this she ran a fabulous race against the very impressive One Knight here a few weeks ago coming in a strong second. She is a mud lover and in this race she will defiantly get the ground she loves. L´Aventure is a winner of six of her 17 starts but that also does not tell the whole story as she has only finished 3 times out of the frame. A mare with class who would not be a surprise winner but has lots of stats against her.
L´Aventure has won up to a distance of 3miles and on going ranging from good/soft to heavy. Desailly 10 10-0 J A Geake M Bradburne
A consistent chestnut gelding who is another who runs up to form without having many wins under his belt. A horse that is running into form right now but looks to have a lot to do in a race of this class. A winner of 2 from 20 starts shows that he is not a prolific winner but has some good form never the less and the best of that was probably last March at Newbury in the Stan James Handicap Chase. Sometimes a horse who runs up to his form consistently never gets the run of the handicap but here is in the handicap and running off the minimum weight so that might come into play here.
Desailly has won up to a distance of 3miles and on ground ranging from good to good/soft. Lord Jack (ex4) 8 10-0 N G Richards A Dobbin
A fine 8 year old chestnut gelding this who comes here in very good form on the back of two wins at Ayr and Kelso. A mud lover who has won 7 of his 19 starts and does most of his running in the northern tracks. His coming down here for this must mean that his connections think the conditions suit but he would have to improve further to win this race even off bottom weight.
Lord Jack has won up to a distance of 3m2f on going ranging from good/soft to Soft Asparagus 10 10-0t M Sheppard O Nelmes(5)
A nice 10-year-old bay gelding this who has some form but mainly on flatter tracks than Chepstow. Take that in to account but also that he has run 8 times at Chepstow and has won 1 and 3 seconds. Asparagus has had some breathing problems in the past, which has led to him running in snatches occasionally. Asparagus has not won a race however beyond 2m5f and that would be a worry. With a clear round and luck in running he could run well but you will have to take much for granted here and with him 5 lbs out of the handicap there are others with more chance.
Asparagus has won up to a distance of 2m5f and on going ranging from good /soft to heavy Count Campioni 10 10-0 M Pitman D Gallagher
A 10-year-old brown gelding who had shown promise but has seemed to have lost his way. His 2nd to the very smart Wahiba Sands in November 1999 started a series of good runs but he has not shown anything like the form of those days recently.
If he puts in a run of that class who knows? But it would take a huge leap of faith to recommend him given his ordinary recent form.
Count Campioni has won up to a distance of 3m3f and on going ranging from good/firm to Heavy Sir Frosty 11 10-0t B J M Ryall T Scudamore
18lbs out of the handicap sums it up for this bay gelding. A winner of 4 from 13 looks to have it all to do here today.
In his favor he likes extreme distances and soft ground. Given that this is Chepstow in December, the ground will be bottomless and the distance is extreme. There are lots more with better form but many will drop out along the way so others misfortune may help him.
Sir Frosty has won up to a distance of 4m1f and on going ranging from good/soft to soft. Jim Jam Joey 11 10-0b Miss Suzy Smith C Bolger(3)
This chestnut gelding has been running in much lower class races that this and has little to recommend him in this race from 26lbs out of the handicap.
A winner of 3 from 28 Starts.
Jim Jam Joey has won up to a distance of 3 miles on soft going. Well that's the form (as I see it) and here are some significant factors for the race: - Average weight carried in last 10 years 10St 6lbs Average Age over last 10 years 8 years old. Last 5 years must have run in at least 8 chases. Last 5 years winners must have won at, at least 3m 2f Last 5 years finished in top 5 last time out. Course form preferably course winner. So my opinion on the race is that the race is a little devalued with the defection of One Knight (look for him in the Gold Cup in March) however it looks like the race could be a good spectacle to watch. Akarus last year was cruising at the second last and would have made the frame at least and I am prepared to forgive his poor runs since in favor for a good run at the course. Bindaree can't be left out of any reckoning 1st as he has proven what he is made of and 2nd he loves the course. Chives despite his breaking of blood vessels runs his heart out and is a classy genuine sort. But Silver Birch this year looks to have all the credentials for a Welsh National Winner. Therefore: - 1. Silver Birch 2. Akarus 3. Chives 4. Bindaree Although not necessarily in that order ;-) Good luck folks you will need it. |
