Chives 8-11-12

Chives has proved to be a first class chaser, He was a good second in this race last year carrying this weight. In last years Grand National he broke a blood vessel and has also done so once this year before being pulled out of a race. He is a chaser of the highest calibre and one not to be left out of anyone's list. That said I think he has a lot to do to win here today. He has a lot of weight, good horses can carry weight to win as Gold cup winner Master Oats(11st 6lbs) did (although the race was run at Newbury that year) and so did Carvill's Hill(11st 12lbs)along with other winners such as duel winner Bonanza Boy(11st 11lbs) and also Stearsby (11st 5lbs) however in the last 10 runnings of the race at Chepstow only once has a horse carried more than 11st to win and the average weight of winners in the last 5 years is 10st 2lbs.
He is top class, from a stable and jockey in form and would get one of the loudest cheers if he won today, and if at his best would have a chance but it is a very big ask this year without at least one good performance under his belt.
Recent Form : One run this year 4th in the Tommy Whittle Chase.
Going and form: A winner of 5 from 16 starts and has won on going from GD/Firm to heavy.

Sir Rembrandt (ex4) 7 11-4 R H Alner

Favourite going into this race based on a very easy win earlier this month on this course in the John Hughes Rehearsal Chase, this race although only having 6 runners had a gold cup winner and a National winner in the field.
Sir Rembrandt is a lovely bay gelding who jumps and travels well in his races and I say this despite his fall in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase earlier this season.
Recent Form: His form this year has been in and out, his first run was in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase where he fell. His other run was at this course in the John Hughes Rehearsal Chase where he won.
Going and form: A winner of 4 from 9 starts and has won on going from good to soft.

Bounce Back 7 10-11 M.Pipe.

A good 7 yr old chestnut gelding who has previously been trained in France. He is now with Martin Pipe and has ran some good races in soft ground if not a prolific winner he has made the frame 18 times from 27 runnings. He ran in this race last year and did not put up much of a show being pulled up however he did carry more than a stone more. Bounce Back has won at Chepstow but that was in a novice chase back in 2001 over 2m 3f but he was a high class hurdler and won the Attheraces Gold Cup Chase at Sandown last season over 3m5f. If at his best he would stand a chance and looks weighted to go close.
RECENT FORM : Only run this season over 3m 5f+ in the williamhill.co.uk Marathon Chase where he finished third 28 lengths behind the winner.
Going and form : A winner of 5 from 27 starts and has won on going from GD to heavy.

Bindaree 9 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies

Bindaree has the stamina to stay this trip as he has proved before. He was a good third in this race in 2001 and also a winner of The Grand National in 2002. He is not a prolific winner in fact he has only won once in his last 17 races and has not won a race since winning the Grand National in April 2002. That is not to say that he does not run with credit because he does run a lot of good races. He has a good racing weight and should be respected. It is difficult to see him turning the tables on the winner that day unless the winner has trouble staying the distance or has trouble carrying the weight. As said before this horse will get the trip and loves the course so he could again run a big race.
Recent Form : Started his running this year in the Becher Chase at Aintree where he fell however he was back out at this course on the 6th of December where he ran a good second to the very smart Sir Rembrandt, he was staying on in the race which was too short for him.
Going and form : A winner of 8 from 33 starts and has won on going from GD to heavy.

Take Control 9 10-9 M.Pipe

A lovely horse this who runs well but can be let down by his jumping. He has run in this race twice before. In 2001 he was 6th behind Supreme Glory and last year unfortunately his jumping let him down and he fell at the 18th fence carrying top weight. All this said when he does put it together he is a force to be reckoned with as his win in the Scottish Grand National in April 2002 shows however you need to bear in mind that was his last win. He has some good things going for him, he is from the top jump yard and has the champion jockey on board. It would not be a surprise to see him run a good race today off a reasonable weight.
Recent Form : Has run only once this season and that was last month in the where he came a good third 15 ½ lengths behind the winner, Strong Flow.
Going and form : A winner of 9 from 32 starts and has won on going from GD to heavy.

Carbury Cross 9 10-6 Jonjo O'Neil

A Nice well thought of 9-year-old bay gelding this, who would not like the traditional heavy ground that is seen at Chepstow this time of year. He has won on good to soft but is better on genuine good ground. He is another who hasn't won for some time now with his last victory coming in the class B Martell V.S. Handicap Chase at Aintree. He is a horse who has proved he runs well in blinkers which he has fitted again today. He has won at 3m1f so he may get the trip today. His stable won this last year with Mini Sensation and today he will be ridden by a 7lb claimer which will put him at the bottom of the weights. If he runs up to his best he would have a chance but looks to have it all to do with the conditions of this race. A serious market move however should not be underestimated.
Recent Form : Three runs this season started with a PU and an UR but on his latest start was a long way back in fourth in at Sandown where one of his rivals today Bounce back was ahead of him.
Going and form : A winner of 7 from 29 starts and has won on going from GD/firm to Soft.

Akarus 8 10-6 M.Pipe

This 8year old bay gelding has dark horse written all over him. He ran well in France where he was only once out of the frame in 11 starts but he flopped on his first two of three runs for Martin Pipe in this country probably on ground not soft enough before being tried at a marathon 4m2f in testing conditions in the Midlands Grand National in soft ground last March. He came a very good second that day and on that form alone would have a chance here but you have to take a bit for granted. Also Tony McCoy is not riding him today although he may have been claimed to ride the David Johnson horse.
Recent Form: Has not run yet this season.
Going and form : A winner of 2 from 14 starts and has won on going from Soft to heavy.

Take The Stand 7 10-6 P.Bowen

This bay gelding has a good recent strike rate winning 5 of his last 8 races, with his best performance in the skybet.com at this course over 3m on good to firm and this is probably the reason he should be overlooked today. All his best form is on a sound surface with 4 of his 6 wins on good to firm ground. He has only tackled heavy ground on two occasions as a 4yr old and flopped. He is a good horse who stays further than three miles and is well thought of by his connections. His jumping has improved as he used to run down his fences as he has suffered from back problems, that said he has only fallen once and was brought down once. His trainer thinks he will not be inconvenienced by the soft ground but when Chepstow is soft it is really soft and this could catch him out.
Recent Form: He is well exposed as he has run through the summer. In July he won and then started this season in August coming second to Flying Instructor at Worcester. His next run was at this course in October where he was a good winner over three miles and proved he could handle the undulations of the course. His next run was in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup where he was brought down and this was followed up by a win in a handicap chase at Exeter.
Going and form : A winner of 6 from 20 starts and has won on going from good/firm to good.

Wonder Weasel 10 10-5 K.C.Bailey

Lightly run horse this 10-year-old bay gelding who started his career at the age of 7. He was well thought of then but has not fulfilled his expectations. He is a Haydock specialist winning 3 of his 5 wins at that course but unusually for a horse that goes well there he has not taken to Aintree at all falling on both occasions when he was tried there. He looks like a horse who has questions marks against him but he has won over three miles and also has won on heavy ground so he may just sparkle in the conditions today.
Recent Form: He started the season in a hurdle at Towcester where he was a long way behind the rest of the field where he came last. He was last tried in the Becher at Aintree where he fell.
Going and form : A winner of 5 from 18 starts and has won on going from good to heavy.

Hedgehunter 7 10-5 W.P.Mullins

Hedgehunter has suffered from a bit of "seconditus" in the past coming second 10 times in 17 runs however don't let that put you off him. This horse who's bear form does not look perhaps as good as others in this race however he has a lot going for him. The first is he runs well on heavy ground and this will put him in good stead today. He has won over 3m 4f. He loves to front run (front runners tend to do well at this undulating course) and he has a first class jockey who knows him well in Ruby Walsh. His fourth last time out behind Take Control (3rd) looks to be hard to overturn but he will have conditions more in has favour today. Don't overlook this horse he has what it takes to win this race and has a good racing weight for this contest.
Recent Form: His only run this season was a good fourth in the Hennessey behind Strong Flow.
Going and form : A winner of 2 from 17 starts and has won on going from soft/heavy to heavy.

Jurancon II 6 10-1 M.Pipe

Another horse who could be a bit of a dark horse from the master trainer Martin Pipe. He has some good form and has won with big weights and on all ground conditions. His jockey today R.Greene gets on well particularly with this horse and he could be another who runs well today. His third place in last seasons Midlands Grand National over 4m 2f proves he has the engine to run well in this race. At 6 years old he has all the stats against him as the last 6year old to win was in 1932 so this may be a little too soon for him. A young horse who could have more improvement to come.
Recent Form: One run this season a fourth at Plumpton in a class C handicap chase.
Going and form : A winner of 5 from 14 starts and has won on going from good to heavy.

Mr Woodentop 7 10-0 L.Lungo

It is a long way to come from Scotland to the Welsh track today so this has to be taking into consideration when trying to assess this bay geldings chance. The booking of Tony Dobbin also looks significant so what's in the form line? A young horse who has only been out of the frame on three occasions in his 11-race career. Not surprisingly given where he is trained he is a bit of an Ayr specialist having won there on five of his 7 wins. He has good winning form beating Whitenzo and Stormez over hurdles in 2002 before turning to chases. He would have to improve on his form over fences to date however he is young enough to have improvement in him. He is thought well of by his trainer who was hoping for rain for this race and he has got it. The horse is a real stayer and should see out this race. He has a good strike rate but his bare chase form looks like he has a bit to find.
Recent Form: One run this season a win at Carlisle in a class C handicap chase.
Going and form : A winner of 6 from 11 starts and has won on going from good to soft.

Kemal´s Council 7 9-6 Jonjo O'Neil

The first of the horses out of the handicap proper. This grey gelding has two chase wins under his belt but they were both in lower class chases. He was then tried in higher class races only to be found wanting, he fell in heavy ground in the Singer and Friedlander National Trial which was won by a stable mate Mini Sensation. He was then pulled up in the Midlands Grand National. He could be anything of course but looks outclassed by his rivals here and would be a surprising winner.
Recent Form: First run was in the Ashleybank Investments Chase won by Mr. Woodentop where he fell and his only other run was at Wetherby in a class C chase where he was 5th.
Going and form : A winner of 3 from 14 starts and has won on going from good/soft to soft.

Kings Mistral 10 9-5 P.R,Cummings

Another from out of the handicap this bay gelding has some good form but it is most of it below the class of this race, however he showed good form under Richard Johnson to land the valuable williamhill.co.uk Marathon Chase at Sandown last time out. He is a stayer who loves soft ground at that is why he takes his chance here today. He has done his winning on galloping courses at Sandown and Ascot and I'm not sure that the undulations of Chepstow will suit him. At 10 years old he can't be improving but every horse has his day could this be his?
Recent Form: Only run was a win in the williamhill.co.uk Marathon Chase over 3m5f+ on good ground.
Going and form : A winner of 6 from 19 starts and has won on going from good to heavy.

Jeremy Spider 10 9-4 C Tizzard

A stayer who loves heavy ground. He has had good runs under his belt, last season he was 8th in the highly contested Topham Chase at Aintree and most recently a win in the Sussex National at Plumpton. Has a lot to find with others in the race but given he likes heavy and stays forever he could run well.
Recent Form: One start in November a win in the Sussex National.
Going and form : A winner of 5 from 19 starts and has won on going from good to heavy.

Significant factors for this race.

Average weight carried in last 10 years 10St 5lbs
Average Age over last 10 years 8 years old.
Last 5 years must have run in at least 8 chases.
Last 5 years winners must have won at, at least 3m 2f
Last 5 years finished in top 5 last time out.
Course form preferably course winner.

Conclusions.

Sir Rembrandt looks the right sort of horse for the race and has won at the course, he likes soft ground but has not tried heavy and It's been raining all day here in Wales so I think the ground will be testing. He was very impressive last time out at the course and is a worthy favourite but he has a lot of weight and less experience over fences than previous winners.

Bindaree ran a cracker behind Sir Rembrandt on his last outing he never looked like winning but was staying on and would have been much closer in another furlong or so, he will be at the there in the end when lots of others have had enough. He's been here before and would be a welcome winner.

Hedgehunter looks to have all the credentials in that he has a low weight is a front runner and also loves heavy ground, Lack of course experience would be a worry today.

It's boring I know but these three at the head of the market look to have the best chance with Hedgehunter looking to have the most going for them however any significant move for any of Jonjo's horses of Len Lungo's should not be discounted.