AAA Welsh National 2002

The Full Runner Preview

Here is my preview of this years runners.

Take Control 8-11-13

A very fine 8 yr old bay gelding this, Won 5 of his 10 hurdle races before going chasing, He was 9th in 2001 Scottish national, and was third in the Hennessey that year behind What's up Boys and Behrajan. He ran in this race last year as was a bit disappointing in his 6th place.
He finished last season with a 6th place in a valuable event at Aintree.
Started well this year, winning The Gala Casinos Daily Record Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase at Air over 4m+ on good ground on his first outing but then let down by his jumping when 12th in the Hennessy Cognac.
On most recent outing he was last in the Tommy Whittle Chase.
A good horse not without a chance this year. Likes soft ground and has won on heavy. He looks to have plenty of weight in what is sure to be very heavy ground. He has the Champion jockey in the saddle this year and that is also very much in his favour.

Chives 7-11-12

A most consistent horse this bay gelding. He has only been out of the frame twice in his 11 starts.
His best race was last season at the festival in the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase where he came a very good third behind Hussard Collonges.
He has had one outing this year in the Edward Hanmer Memorial Chase where he was a close second to the very smart Kingsmark. That would give him a good chance today however he will not have run on ground this heavy and he has not run over 3 1/4 miles before.

Bounce Back 6-11-12

This chestnut gelding is a past winner of the French Champion Hurdle so he is no slouch.
During 2001 he was another who moved from France to the yard of Martin Pipe.
He started in this country over fences and would have won on his debut but for a mistake at the second last, he finished second.
His next outing was here at Chepstow at last years first December meeting where he won a grade D race very easily.
He ran in and out after that looking good but not winning his races.
It was back to hurdles for him in March at the festival and a 5th in the Bonusprint Stayers' Hurdle.
Jumped poorly I the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase on last start.
A horse with potential who could win this, He has plenty of weight for this event in this ground but he has won on heavy and has won around this distance. His trainer also has a good record in this race.

The Bunny Boiler 8-11-8

This bay gelding is very consistent; in his last 11 runs he has won 5, and make the frame a further 4 times.
Last march he won the Midlands Grand National Chase at Uttoxeter on heavy ground and then followed that up with a win in the Irish Grand National Chase.
This year he started his campaign with a hurdle race and was a good second.
The Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle was his last outing where he won but now it will be back to chasing.
A horse full of class and one with the right credentials for this race. Do-not leave this one out of your reckoning.

Supreme Glory 9-11-7

Last year's winner this bay gelding where he beat the rest of the field very well. He was then tried in the Aon Chase where he finished 5th but then it all went wrong as he was injured with a tendon injury and missed the rest of the season.
Has had one race here in the John Hughes Rehearsal Chase and ran well for a horse off the course for about 300 days.
He can't have had the best preparation for this race but has won over course and distance and that if often a good thing at Chepstow.
It would not be surprising but would be a very good training effort for him to win this year. He could however easily make the fame; I'm sure that we will see plenty of horses not finish this year.

Frosty Canyon 9-11-7

F A winner of 2 from 7 chases this 9yr old bay gelding, has not found his form yet this year.
Last season he started with 2 seconds and two wins all in chases, before going to Cheltenham and coming a good fourth in the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase.
He has won on soft ground and up to 3m1f and has run in heavy ground.
Another not without a chance.

Murts Man 8-11-00

He pulled up in the Grand National after one circuit last year this bay gelding, but before that race he did win a nice race in the Tote Bookmakers Handicap Chase at Chepstow.
As I have stated before a liking for the Chepstow course is a bonus and he was also second in the Jack Brown Bookmakers Handicap Chase at Chepstow last year. That was his only win last year but he ran with great credit in the other races he contested.
He has potent ional as his trainer has said that he thinks he is a Scottish National type so he can't be ruled out of the running easily.
He has only run once this year in the Intervet Trophy Handicap Chase where he seemed to be struggling a long way out.
He has won up to 3m 1f and on soft ground but seems better on gd/sft.

Rugged River 7-10-10

This 7 yr old bay gelding has not many miles on the clock indeed he has only run 6 times, that is due to him getting an injury in 2000 and that kept him out of action for 703 days.
On his return in November he came back with a win at Newton Abbot in Heavy ground at 3m2f, and that was some going.
He then ran here at Chepstow in the John Hughes Rehearsal Chase and had only two horses in front of him A Gold Cup winner in See More Business and a Grand national winner in Bindaree, He also had last years Welsh National winner Supreme Glory behind in fourth.
This may be asking a little too much of him to win this race this year but he looks the sort to win more long distance chases and he could just be overlooked by many.

Frantic Tan 10-10-8

This Chestnut gelding has had a few problems in the past. As a young horse he fractured hi near fore and since then has often finished races sore, he need plenty of time between races and also has a touch of arthritis.
He is not a prolific winner but has been running in top class races.
His last win was back in February 2001 where he beat Jock's Cross, Take Control and Supreme Glory all who are entered here, so he has a touch of class about him but his recent form looks like PU, UR, UR, PU, 4. The fourth coming at the Thomas Pink Meeting in the Amateur riders race, This could mean a return to his better form and therefore that would stand him in good stead but it would have been nice to see him put two or three good races in first.

Royal Tommy 10-10-7

He stays forever and loves bottomless ground. These are what this fine bay gelding does the best. This is also what will be needed to win the race this year. Royal Tommy's winning distances have been 3m 1f, 2m6f, 3m1f, 3m6f, 3m2f, 3m5f, and 3m6f with the emphasis on soft or heavy ground.
After I say this horse win the Jack Brown Bookmaker Handicap Chase at Chepstow in 2000 I thought he would win this race, He has brought down that year and missed last year but this could be the time for him.
He has not had a good season so far however; his first run was at Cheltenham where he was pulled up in the cross-country race.
He then came to Chepstow in the Jack Brown Bookmakers Handicap Chase where he ran ok and finished a distant fifth to Gunner Welburn. He has always had the problem of not being able to keep up with the leaders in races and that is why the heavy ground suits him. He will have to improve a lot on that run to overturn the winner but in the heavy ground and with lots of horses pulling up he should stay on and would not be a surprise winner.

Ackzo 10-10-7

This is another fine long distance chaser who won the Marstons Pedigree Midlands Grand National Chase over 4m 2f+ in March 2000, however that was his last win.
He is a horse with plenty of ability who has had problems. A winner of 4 of his 12 chases he was pulled up on his last two starts last year at Cheltenham and Aintree in the Grand National.
His only run this season was in the Tim Molony Memorial Chase over 3m 4f+ at Haydock where he ran a very creditable fourth for his new trainer Ginger McCain.
He could be coming back to form at the right time and his last trainer did once think he was a Welsh National type of horse.

Gunner Welburn 10-10-6

A very fine hunter chaser this chestnut gelding, who in his 12 hunter chases has only finished out of the frame on two occasions. He has won the Martell Fox Hunters' Chase in 2001 and was second in 2002; he was also second in the Christie's Foxhunter Chase back in march this year.
He is a fine jumper who on his last outing which was his first under rules jumped very well around Chepstow in the very soft ground to win the Jack Brown Bookmakers Handicap Chase very impressively indeed. That has put him in with a real favourites chance in this race. His jumping and a liking for the course and ground gives him a very good chance as long as he stays the trip and the way he was finishing last time out suggests he should.
He is sure to be there or thereabouts at the finish.

It's Himself 10-10-5

A nice bay gelding this Irish raider who has not been seen much in this country. He was second to Streamstown in the Singer & Friedlander National Trial on his last race in this country last February.
He ran very well in the David Austin Memorial Novice Handicap Chase at Punchestown at the back end of last season.
He has run once this season so far in Galway where he was 5th.
It's Himself is a bit of a dark horse but it is a long way to come so his connections must think he has good credentials here.

Mini Sensation 9-10-4

A winner of 2 from 8 chases this is another who is a bit of a dark horse.
He has sown ability in the past and his best race was probably in the Marstons Pedigree Midlands Grand National Chase where he was second to The Bunny Boiler over 4m2f+ in heavy ground. That form looks solid and the booking of Tony Dobbin also looks significant. It there is a market move for this horse on the day then this should not be ignored.
He has only run once so far this season and that was a very poor performance at Wetherby, if you can forgive this then he could be up for this race. The market is probably the best guide to this one.

Native Buck 9-10-0 (9-13)

Heavy ground and 3m+ is what this chestnut gelding requires to win and he will get that here. He has been a bit of an Uttoxeter specialist as 3 of his 4 wins have been there.
He does however have nice bits of form at Haydock as his only run this season shows when he was second to Kit Smartie in the Tim Molony Memorial Chase on soft ground.

Ambleside 11-10-0 (9-12)

With 39 chases under his belt this horse has plenty of miles on the clock. This fine bay gelding is one of my favourite horses probably as he runs so often at Chepstow and also that he runs so well there.
He ran in the 2000 race and finished a very creditable fourth that year.
Ambleside was also 5th in the Scottish National in 2000 so he used to running long distances with good horses.
Two of his seven chase wins have come at Chepstow and he seems to have a liking for the course and as such I think he would be a very popular winner. He is running from just out of the handicap, which is not so good, but he should give a good run for the money.
He has had two races this year the first at Newbury where he was 4th of 5 to Rugged River, getting only 4lbs from him and most recently a really good third to Gunner Welburn in the Jack Brown Bookmakers Handicap Chase receiving only 4lbs.
I think Ambleside will run into a place today and with a bit of luck who knows?

The Quads 10-10-0 (9-5)

This bay gelding ran well for a long time in Ireland before being brought over here to the Ferdy Murphy yard last year.
It did not take long for him to win; he did this in his second race at Carlisle. Then ran well enough if not doing anything spectacular for the rest of the season.
He started this season well however in the Sporting Index Chase at Cheltenham in November where he was second to Famfoni.
He was then entered for the similar Sporting Index Shield Account Handicap Chase over the same course this time the race was a handicap and he went one better by winning the race by 10 lengths. This sort of novelty race seems to be his cup of tea now but it may just have freshen his racing up.

Last year I gave you these 10 year trend rules. - 1) All but 1 were aged 7 8 or 9 (riverside boy at 10 was the example)- 2) All were previous winners at Chepstow- 3) All had won races at 3m or more- 4) All had run within 30 days of the race- 5) The average weight carried was 10st 6lbs but 4 of the 7 winners carried 10 st.-

Well last year it would NOT have given you the winner. If you apply these rules this year however "none" of the horses qualify. This then makes it an exceptional year.

So what will win? It's boring I know but I think the way that Gunner Welburn won at the course last time out means that he has the best chance and therefore he is favourite and must get the vote.
Also Look out for Royal Tommy who if he can lay up with the pace early on will stay on at the end.
and finally Rugged River who with a 5lb claimer seems to fit the profile of a Welsh National Winner.
If you don't fancy these then just pick a horse with less that 11st as this has proved to be the biggest factor in the past, this rule alone rules out 7 horses.