AAA Welsh National 2001

The Full Runner Preview

See More Business 11:11:12

An "absolute champion" is this bay gelding. He has competed and won at the very highest level. In 1999 he won the Cheltenham gold cup and has won the King George twice also. He is of the very highest class and loves to front run.
He does have a few facts running against him I that the last 11 year old to win was back in 1967 when the race was won by Happy Spring, and you have to go back 10 years to find a horse winning carrying 11st 10 to win. but he is top class and is entitled to carry top weight and he has proved that he can carry big weights. If he can still give this sort of allowance to other horses then he could win. You really would be very foolish to leave this horse out of your deliberations. Acts on ground between good to gd/soft. Has won up to 3m2f
Past Form A winner of 15 and placed twice from 27 starts including twice winner of the Rehearsal Chase at this course. 199 winner of the Cheltenham gold cup. Twice winner of the King George.
Recent form: Only run this season he fell when going very well at this course (only time he has not run and failed to win at course)
Points for: Top class. Loves course, ground and distance, front-runner.
Points Against: Fell at course last time, Age and big weight.
See More Business is trained by P.Nicholls

What's Up Boys 7:11:1

A very smart hurdler this Grey Gelding before starting his jumping career poorly but has now got his act together and is shaping up to be a very good chaser. He was one of my horses to follow last year and is doing even better this year winning the Hennessy. He ran very well last year to beat the very smart Shotgun Willy at Aintree before coming in second to Ad hoc in the Whitbread. Another young horse with improvement to come and can't be left out of the reckoning. Acts on good to gd/sft. And has won up to a distance of 3m1f

Past form: A winner of 8 and placed 6 from 18 starts including a valuable race at Aintree and also another at Cheltenham.
Recent form : Only run this year was when he won the Hennessy.
Points for. : Age, going.
Points against: No previous run at course
What's Up Boys is trained by P.Hobbs

You're Agoodun 9:10:8

This chestnut gelding won his first two outings over fences but then lst his way a little in better races. He likes softish going. He tried this race last year and failed to finish. He went on again in the Grand National and failed to finish both run on soft ground. It would be crazy to eliminate any Martin Pipe runner but it looks like a long shot here. If back to his winning form he could go close but that would be a risk, also he has not been chosen by Tony McCoy who rarely choose the wrong horse. Acts on good to soft ground and has won up to 3m1f

Past form: A winner of 6 and placed 6 from 31 starts.
Recent form: Started season on a winning note at Ascot beating Gaysun then 4th to Hati Roy at Cheltenham when he finished very tired after a hard race. Has since been third to Shooting light at Cheltenham and on that run looks to be running into a bit of form.
Points For: Distance, ground, running into form?
Points Against: Course, did not finish last year.
You're Aoodun is trained by M.Pipe

Take Control: 7:10:5

This Bay gelding looks to be a proper staying chaser. He has been chosen by Tony McCoy as his ride and his trainer has a good record in this race. A good strong chaser who has won some fine races as well as coming second to good horses such as Bacchanal and Shotgun Willy. Has run in good class races and if he shows his best is sure to be there or there about. Acts on good to heavy best on soft. Has won up to 3m2f
Past form: A winner of 8 and places 5 from 18 starts.
Recent form: 1 race this year when 3rd behind What's Up Boys at Newbury
Points for: Jockey, Trainer and weight.
Points Against: Course.
Take Control is trained by M.Pipe.

Jocks Cross 10:10:4

Last years winner this 10 yr old Chestnut gelding has some good form at the Chepstow track he won a 10,000 pound event in march 2000 and ran a creditable second that year staying on behind Moral Support in the John Hughes. He could win again and is carrying 3lbs less weight. If back to last years form would obviously has a good chance and looked good in his first outing this year but ran well below Par on last outing in the Hennessy and had What's Up Boys, well in front that day. Acts on good to heavy and has won over this trip

Past form; A winner of 11 and placed 9 times in 36 starts. Winner of this race being his best performance to date.
Recent form: Good start to year with a 5th behind Hati Roy at Cheltenham but then lost his way in the Hennessey. Points for: Course, Trip, And Ground.
Points Against: poor last run.
Jocks Cross is trained by V.Williams.

Moral Support 9:10:4

This Chestnut Gelding ran two very good races at Chepstow last year; He beat Jock's Cross in the Rehearsal Chase before loosing the big one to his a few weeks later. He then went on to be a co-fav in the Grand National on the soft ground he needed when he fell in the Mele . He is a good horse who shows his best here and could be one in the shake up at the end of this one but has not shown his sparkle of last year yet this season. He would not be surprising winner especially if the ground was very tacky.
Past Form: A winner of 6 and placed 6 from 25 starts.
Recent form: 16Lths second behind Fandango De Chassy on first outing then a lacklustre third behind Arctic Camper in the Rehearsal.
Points for: Course, Distance, and Going.
Points Against: Very Recent form.
Moral Support is trained by C.Mann.

Bindaree 7:10:2

This Chestnut Gelding is a winner of a grade one hurdle and is turning out to be a very good chaser. He has won at distances at or over 3m on 4 occasions and has won at Chepstow twice. He loves soft ground and runs off a light weight. He seems to have everything in his favour for this race if he is good enough and I think he is. He has been in the frame 13 times from his 20 runs and this proves he is very consistent. His Jockey and trainer have won this race in the past so he is here with the best credentials. Definitely one for the short list. Acts on good to heavy best on soft. And has won up to 3m1f
Points for: course, going
Points against: In a fast run race can fall behind.
Bindaree is trained by N.T.Davies.

Dark Stranger: 10:10:1

A festival winner is this bay gelding from the M.Pipe stable, and that was when he was first tried in blinkers, which he wears today. He was also once the favourite for the Grand National but unseated his jockey in the race. Last years National he was another caught up in the Mêlée. He seems to be in reasonable form for this time of year with him but he has done all his winning after December and therefore this race may come too early in his season. He is not without a chance on his best for if he can show it here. Acts on good to heavy but prefers good. Has won up to 2m4f
Points for: Has some class, Weight
Points Against: Has not won at this time of year, Distance?
Dark Stranger is trained by M.Pipe.

Supreme Glory 8:10:10 (Handicap weight 9:11)

A good old-fashioned stayer is this Bay gelding. Staying is he forte and he does it well in the soft ground. Was third last year in the Scottish event where he simply found 2 too good. Comes here however with a lacklustre last run but if up to his best will be staying on at the end where others have called enough. A young horse with very few miles on the clock and I'm sure is still improving. A live chance. Acts on soft to Heavy and has won up to 4m
Past form: A winner of 3 and placed 5 from 14 runs best over 4 miles at Exeter
Recent form: Started season with a good win at Stratford beating Atavistic but then a disappointing forth next time out when jumped poorly.
Points for: going distance
Points against: untried at track, Very recent form.
Supreme Charm is trained by P.G.Murphy

Murt's Man 7:10:0 (official handicap weight 9:8)

A Highly thought of Bay gelding this from a stable with a lot of good horses in it. He looks like a long distance chaser and is another who may have a lot of improvement in him. But has fallen twice and has unseated rider in his quite show career. Not without a chance especially is he is going to be as good as his connections think. Acts on Gd/Sft to soft. And has won up to 3m1f
Past form: A winner of 2 and placed 5 from12 starts.
Recent form: Poor first run with blinkers on but much better second on this course in the Jack Brown earlier in the month.
Points for: Still has improvement to come.
Points against: can make mistakes.
Murt's Man is trained by P.Nicholls.

Edmond 9:10:0 (official handicap weight 9:6)

Something of a Chepstow specialist this horse who has won the race in 1999 and was third in 2000. Ran a good race in the Grand National last season but then put his feet in the ditch at the Chair and lost his jockey. Has not won a race since his win in this event in 1999 and suffers from the odd mistake, which can put him out of the race. He loves Chepstow and this marathon trip and will love the ground but will need to be back at his best to take a hand this year but he is still only 9 and this is by no means beyond him. Acts on gd/sft to heavy and has won at this trip.
Past form: A winners of 9 and placed 7 in 23 runs. A winner of this race.
Recent form: One run this season without blinkers a one paced fourth but will come on for the race.
Points for: Course, ground, distance.
Points against: Has not won for two years
. Edmond is trained by H.Daly.

Choisty 11:10:0 (official handicap weight 9:0)

This Chestnut gelding has not shown any real form since coming back from a long lay off. He has been pulled up on his last two runs. At his best he might run into a place but it is difficult to see him playing any part in the finish. Acts on good to soft and has won over 3m5f
Past form: a winners of 6 and placed 6 fro m 31 starts. He is a course winner at Chepstow.
Recent form: After an 11 month lay off two runs and pulled up twice.
Points for: course
Points Against: recent form poor strike rate.
Choisty is trained by H.E.Haynes

Saxon Duke 10:10:0 (official Handicap weight 8:7)

This bay gelding like a marathon trip and at these type of event he is probably a little better than his bear form suggests. He won under these conditions at Warwick last march and will need the ground to be very soft and the race to be run slowly. Given the amount of horses that can make the running I think this is unlikely but it would not be a total surprise if he made the frame at a big price. He was a 1 length second to Edmond in the jack Brown on this course when in the years Edmond went on and won this race. Acts on good to heavy best on soft and has won up to 3m5f
Past form : a winner of 5 and placed 11 from 27 starts.
Recent form: Started season 7th in an amateur event at Cheltenham and third in a class d handicap at Exeter 3 weeks ago.
Points for: Course, Distance.
Points Against: At 10 years old not likely to have improvement to come. Will need things to go his way.
Saxon Duke is trained by P Hobbs.

Folly Road 11:10:0 (official handicap weight 8:1)

Another who likes to run at extreme distances and one who likes Chepstow. Looked to be coming back to a little form when 1 length second to Coolteen hero back in November, but this was a class f event. He looks below this class and will be a surprise if he takes any part in the finish. Acts on gd/sft to soft and has won up to 3m41/2f
Past form: A winner of 6 and placed 9 from 41 runs.
Recent form: 5 runs this season with the best a second as mentioned above at Chepstow.
Points for: Course,
Points Against: looks outclassed. Long way out f the handicap.
Folly Road is trained by D.L.Williams

Bally Lira : 9:10:0 (official handicap weight 7:11)

A nice Bay Mare this who jumps well. She is a little slow but will stay on at the end of what may turn into a very tiring race. Does not travel well in races with pace but always does best at end. Would perhaps like a 5-mile race? Not without a chance of getting into the frame but it is hard to see her winning this. Acts on gd/sft to heavy best on heavy. And has won up to 3m2f
Past form a winner of 4 and placed 15 from 39 starts.
Recent form: 5th on first run and U/R on last.
Points for: going trip, course
Points Against: outclassed. Long way out of handicap.
Bally Lira is trained by P.R.Rodford.

Here is my summing up of this years Welsh National.

This could turn out to be one of the most competitive races for some time, there are however some rules we could make for this race going on the form of the last 10 years (please note I have excluded the win by Master oats as the race was held at Newbury) Here is a list of the few simple rules: -
1) All but 1 were aged 7 8 or 9 (riverside boy at 10 was the example)-
2) All were previous winners at Chepstow-
3) All had won races at 3m or more-
4) All had run within 30 days of the race-
5) The average weight carried was 10st 6lbs but 4 of the 7 winners carried 10 st.-

If you followed these rules last year you would have been left with 5 horses 1 fell and the other four were in the first five .

If you follow these rules this year then you will be down to 4.
Moral Support, Bindaree, Edmond and Bally Lira. With Bally Lira running from over 2 stone out of the weights then elimination is easy. With the exception of Bonanza Boy 1988/1989 no horse has repeated a win so eliminate Edmond. This leaves Moral Support and Bindaree that look like the two to beat. But to this I would add the class of See More Business to defy top weight and win the race. So there you have it my selections for 123 would be